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☆ What the Baltimore bridge collapse means for the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-27 | by ( George Glover | Pete Syme | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewThe collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge on Tuesday is a reminder that the economy remains vulnerable to sudden supply-chain shocks, experts say. Here's how the catastrophe could affect the economy, trade, and the city of Baltimore. "This event will have greater economic implications for the Baltimore economy than nationally," Oxford Economics' chief US economist Ryan Sweet said on Tuesday in a research note. The container ship Dali collided with a key bridge in Baltimore on Tuesday. The port of Baltimore is the busiest for "roll-on/roll-off" cargo, which includes cars, light trucks, and agricultural and construction equipment.

Persons: —, Francis Scott Key, Dali, Ryan Sweet, Michael A, McCoy, Sweet, Michael Tamvakis, Tamvakis, Ioannis Moutzouris, Moutzouris Organizations: Service, Business, Maersk, Oxford Economics, Washington Post, Getty, JPMorgan, International Monetary Fund, City , University, London's Bayes Business, Maxar, University of London Locations: Baltimore, Norfolk, New York, New Jersey, Suez

☆ US consumers are feeling less optimistic about the economy for the first time this summer
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington, DC CNN —Americans became slightly less optimistic about the economy this month, following two straight months of growing confidence. Sentiment had been on an upswing throughout the summer, mostly due to slower inflation, and is well above the record lows reached this time last year. Signs of cooling inflationGas prices, which are highly visible indicators of inflation for consumers, have risen in recent weeks, which could weigh on sentiment in the future. Still, consumers face the resumption of student loan payments later this year, and that could weigh on household budgets. US consumers opened up their wallets this summer, with many flocking to the smash-hit “Barbie” movie, attending concerts by Taylor Swift or Beyoncé, or traveling abroad.

Persons: “, ”, Joanne Hsu, Ryan Sweet, bode, Kieran Clancy, Barbie, Taylor Swift Organizations: DC CNN, University of Michigan, University of Michigan’s, University, Oxford Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Pantheon, Consumer, Commerce Department, Federal, Atlanta Locations: Washington, June’s, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Michigan

☆ US consumer confidence jumps to highest level since July 2021
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Minneapolis CNN —High interest rates aren’t souring Americans’ moods: A key measurement of consumer confidence just shot up to a level not seen since July 2021. The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index hit 117 in July, rising from 110.1 the month before, according to new data released Tuesday. The Conference Board’s confidence index and the University of Michigan’s twice-a-month consumer sentiment index are two leading gauges of consumers’ attitudes toward the current and future strength of the economy. Consumer spending, which is a key driver of US economic activity, has eased somewhat in recent months but remains resilient. The Commerce Department on Friday will release the latest data on consumer spending alongside a critical inflation gauge for the Fed.

Persons: ”, Dana Peterson, “, Nathan Howard, ” Ryan Sweet, Chris Rupkey, FwdBonds, Barbie Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Conference Board, Washington , D.C, Bloomberg, Getty, University of Michigan’s, Oxford Economics, ‘ Times, Commerce Department, Fed Locations: Minneapolis, Georgetown, Washington ,, Michigan, America

☆ Slower, still strong US job growth expected in June
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The economy needs to create 70,000-100,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. A Conference Board survey last month showed consumers' perceptions of the labor market more upbeat in June relative to May. But first-time applications for unemployment benefits jumped to a 20-month high during the week that the government surveyed businesses for the nonfarm payrolls count. "They are going to opt to cut hours worked, that is something we need to pay very close attention to, rather than the net gain in nonfarm payrolls." The slowdown in wage growth is being driven by the loss of high-paying technology and finance jobs among others.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Sung Won Sohn, Payrolls, Ryan Sweet, Milton Ezrati, Yelena Shulyatyeva, Lucia Mutikani, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Labor, Federal Reserve, U.S, Loyola Marymount University, Institute for Supply, Board, Oxford Economics, West Chester Pennsylvania, BNP, Thomson Locations: y WASHINGTON, Los Angeles, payrolls, West Chester, nonfarm, New York

Washington, DC CNN —New home sales surged in May, as buyers looked to new construction as an alternative to the low inventory of existing homes for sale. Homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates are reluctant to sell and buy another home at a much higher rate. Sales of existing homes have been down for the past few months, while new home sales have been rising. Mortgage rates reached as high as 6.79% at the end of May as uncertainty moved through the financial industry due to the debt ceiling standoff. This increase in mortgage rates cooled mortgage applications.

Persons: “, ”, Nancy Vanden Houten, Ryan Sweet, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, ” Aleman Organizations: DC CNN, US Department of Housing, Urban Development, Census Bureau, Oxford Economics, Federal Reserve Locations: Washington, Northeast, South, West

[1/2] The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. They expect the Fed to raise its target rate to 5.25%-5.5% at the July 25-26 meeting. And it's quite likely that if the Fed does hold off on rates it will prep markets for action later on. The last Fed forecasts released at the March meeting had penciled in a 5.1% stopping point for the federal funds rate target, where it is now. Each Fed policymaker's view of the appropriate year-end policy rate is depicted by an anonymous "dot" on a grid.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, who've, Wrightson ICAP, Wrightson, it's, Jerome Powell's, ’ ”, Powell, Ryan Sweet, Morgan Stanley, Oscar Munoz, Ann Saphir, Michael S, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Fed, Bank of America, Citibank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Deutsche Bank, Oxford Economics, Securities, Derby, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S

At the same time, hiring remained strong through March, and wages continue growing faster than Fed officials feel is sustainable. The ECI is only released quarterly and includes both worker pay and benefits like healthcare, giving what Fed officials regard as a clearer sense of employment-related cost trends. For Fed officials, it could influence their view of whether the economy and inflation are likely to slow more - perhaps much more - quickly than anticipated. Reuters GraphicsEconomists expect the upcoming survey will show conditions tightening further still, this time alongside data showing credit from banks in decline. "Banks may not be done tightening lending standards, which will restrict access to credit, hurt business investment, reduce business formation, and weigh on job growth and consumer spending."

☆ Weak retail sales, manufacturing output data point to slowing US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Data for February was revised up to show retail sales falling 0.2% instead of 0.4% as previously reported. Retail sales are mostly goods, which are typically bought on credit, and are not adjusted for inflation. Retail sales and inflationThe decline in retail sales was almost across the board. Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, edged up 0.1%. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales slipped 0.3% last month.

Two of the Fed's 12 regional bank presidents resigned as a result of that scandal and Powell launched a fast overhaul of the central bank's ethics rules as criticism mounted. Senator Elizabeth Warren, a longtime Powell opponent, saying she had lost confidence as well in San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, whose bank was responsible for supervising SVB. Still, turbulence in financial markets and the banking system is likely to feature prominently in Powell's post-meeting news conference, which is scheduled to begin at 2:30 p.m. EDT (1830 GMT). The U.S. central bank will release its policy statement and new economic projections from Fed officials at 2 p.m. EDT. Market expectations are tilted heavily towards the Fed approving another quarter-of-a-percentage-point rate increase, which would lift its benchmark overnight interest rate - the federal funds rate - to the 4.75%-5.00% range.

Yields on Treasury bonds, meanwhile, increased as investors discounted the likelihood that the Fed would shy away from further rate increases. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation is running at almost three times the central bank's target. Important aspects of both reports, however, moved in the favor of a more tempered Fed policy. Wage growth continued to slow in February, and much of the jump in prices last month was driven by the cost of shelter, an area where Fed officials feel inflation will soon prove to be slowing. "The Fed can support liquidity in the banking system and tighten monetary policy at the same time," Sweet said.

☆ Americans are about to put the brakes on spending, and that's got Wall Street analysts on alert. Here's why, and what it means for stocks.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-04 | by ( Ryan Hogg | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Here's why spending is likely to slow down, and why it could mean more turmoil for markets. Retailers and others believe that consumer expenditure is likely to fall, after kicking off the first weeks of 2023 on the rise. Meanwhile, the Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauge showed a 1.8% jump in consumer expenditure that month, compared with December. It's fair to say most analysts weren't expecting consumer spending data to be so resilient in January — and some suggest those figures might be overblown. A dip in consumer spending might signal the beginning of a sustained drop in demand in the US.

☆ Fed seen hiking policy rate above 5% as hiring surges
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Feb 3 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to need at least two more interest-rate hikes, lifting the benchmark rate to above 5%, to slow an unexpectedly strong labor market seen as contributing to high inflation. The Fed earlier this week increased its benchmark rate by a quarter-of-a-percentage-point to 4.5%-4.75%. Interest-rate futures prices, initially skeptical of that view, now reflect that expectation, with a better than even chance seen that the Fed will continue get its policy rate to the 5%-5.25% range by June, if not by May. The Fed targets 2% inflation, now running at 5% by the Fed's preferred measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index. Friday's Labor Department report did show slower growth in average hourly earnings to a 4.4% pace, from an upwardly revised 4.8% in December.

☆ Analysis: U.S. financial conditions have eased. So far the Fed is okay with it
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Fresh projections by Fed policymakers released after next week's meeting are expected to reflect that, along with a forecast for no cuts to the policy rate until 2024. Reuters GraphicsThat could feed into arguments that the economy and labor markets are poised to weaken next year, easing inflation pressures. And those drops came despite the Fed lifting its policy rate by three-quarters-of-a-percentage point, to 3.75%-4% in early November. Meanwhile, unemployment has stayed at a low 3.7%, below where Fed policymakers had thought it would be as tighter policy slowed the economy. Reuters GraphicsPart of the reason the Fed may be more comfortable with easing financial conditions now than in the summer is simply that the Fed has already raised interest rates by nearly 4 percentage points.

☆ U.S. retail sales rise solidly; fourth-quarter GDP estimates raised
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

With inflation cooling considerably in October, economists estimate real retail sales increased 0.9% last month. Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, increased 1.6%. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales increased 0.7% last month. Data for September was revised higher to show these so-called core retail sales rising 0.6% instead of 0.4% as previously reported. Core retail salesCore retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product.

☆ Trade seen boosting U.S. economy in Q3; growth details likely soft
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"The devil is in the details, and if you strip out trade, GDP will look a lot weaker than the headline number suggests," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP growth likely rebounded at a 2.4% annualized rate last quarter after contracting at a 0.6% pace in the second quarter. Wild swings in trade and inventories were behind the contraction in GDP in the first half of the year. A modest rebound in business spending on equipment is predicted after it contracted in the second quarter. Some economists believe inventories, which were the biggest drag on GDP in the second quarter, had a neutral impact on output last quarter.

☆ The typical U.S. household is spending $445 more a month due to inflation. Here's how to reduce the bite
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Hourly earnings fell 3%, on average, in the year to September after accounting for inflation, according to the BLS. The inflation impact on households' wallets isn't uniform, though. Your personal inflation rate depends on the types of goods and services you buy, and other factors like geography. The Moody's estimate of inflation's dollar impact analyzes September's annual inflation rate and typical household outlays as outlined by the Consumer Expenditure Survey. They can also reassess monthly subscriptions — to clothing and streaming services, for example — which can often serve as "money drains," Maloon said.

☆ Premarket stocks: The housing market is a mess, but this isn't 2008
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But within those reports, investors found ominous clues about the future of the housing market, underscoring fears of an upcoming crisis. “We’ve had a time of a red-hot housing market all over the country,” Fed President Jerome Powell told me in September. “For the longer term what we need is supply and demand to get better aligned so that housing prices go up at a reasonable level…and people can afford houses again. “This is the sharpest turn in the housing market since the housing market crash in 2008,” said Redfin’s chief economist, Daryl Fairweather, last month. What’s next: Investors will next look to housing starts data next week as an indicator of where the housing market is headed.

☆ U.S. goods trade deficit narrows in August as imports fall
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The economy could also get a lift from big gains in wholesale and retail inventories last month. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThe goods trade deficit contracted 3.2% to $87.3 billion last month, the smallest since October 2021. Imports of capital goods dropped 1.8%, while those of consumer goods slipped 0.2%. There were, however, increases in imports of food, motor vehicles and other goods, which boosted retail inventories. Goods exports fell $1.7 billion to $179.8 billion.

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